Does battery storage cost reduce over time?

The projections are developed from an analysis of recent publications that include utility-scale storage costs. The suite of publications demonstrates wide variation in projected cost reductions for battery storage over time.

How much does a 4 hour battery system cost?

Figure ES-2 shows the overall capital cost for a 4-hour battery system based on those projections, with storage costs of $245/kWh, $326/kWh, and $403/kWh in 2030 and $159/kWh, $226/kWh, and $348/kWh in 2050.

Are battery storage costs based on long-term planning models?

Battery storage costs have evolved rapidly over the past several years, necessitating an update to storage cost projections used in long-term planning models and other activities. This work documents the development of these projections, which are based on recent publications of storage costs.

Are electric vehicle battery projections based on NREL projections?

In 2016, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) published a set of cost projections for utility-scale lithium-ion batteries (Cole et al. 2016). Those 2016 projections relied heavily on electric vehicle battery projections because utility-scale battery projections were largely unavailable for durations longer than 30 minutes.

Will additional storage technologies be added?

Additional storage technologies will be added as representative cost and performance metrics are verified. The interactive figure below presents results on the total installed ESS cost ranges by technology, year, power capacity (MW), and duration (hr).

When will battery cost projections be updated?

In 2019, battery cost projections were updated based on publications that focused on utility-scale battery systems (Cole and Frazier 2019), with updates published in 2020 (Cole and Frazier 2020) and 2021 (Cole, Frazier, and Augustine 2021). There was no update published in 2022.